Harbor: If the US reduces tariffs on Canadian aluminum, the European aluminum premium could reach over $1,000 per tonne
October 20, 2026
On Monday, October 19th, Harbor Aluminum's managing director said that if the US lowers the aluminum import tariff on Canada from 50% to 25%, the European aluminum premium could rise above $1,000 per tonne.
The current COMEX European duty-paid premium is $563 per tonne, having risen by over 70% this year due to the war in the Middle East, the shutdown of the MozaI smelter, and the increased supply concerns from the EU carbon tax.
Vazquez stated at the LME metals seminar: "If the US grants this tariff concession to Canada, the aluminum supply from Canada will flow largely to the US market, and there will be a supply shortage in Europe. We believe the premium may reach $1,000 per tonne or even higher."
Vazquez said that the current US Midwest aluminum premium is $1.07 per pound, or $2,347 per tonne. If an agreement is reached with Canada, it could be reduced to 60 to 80 cents per pound, depending on the details of the agreement.
