How will the profit of China's alumina industry be in 2025?
January 16, 2026
Yuefeng Aluminum statistics show that the average monthly profit of the Chinese alumina industry in 2025 was approximately 218.54 yuan/ton, which was significantly lower than the profit in 2024. From the market trend of alumina raw material prices: The overall Chinese bauxite market is showing a downward trend. In terms of domestic ore, the shortage of supply has provided a positive support for the ore prices, but the decline in alumina prices has strengthened the negative impact on the ore prices, leading to a downward trend in domestic ore prices. In terms of imported ore, due to the intensified supply surplus of imported ore and the continuous downward trend of downstream alumina prices in 2025, the negative impact on the market has intensified, and the ore prices have continuously dropped. However, due to the 1-2 month lag in the transmission of import ore price fluctuations to the alumina cost, the ore prices in the first and fourth quarters slightly declined, but the alumina cost remained at a relatively high level; Regarding caustic soda, the average price of liquid caustic soda in China rose slightly in 2025, and the supply of liquid caustic soda was sufficient in 2025, with the price showing an overall downward trend. However, due to the good demand for alumina in the first quarter, the price was at a relatively high level, and the annual average price was slightly higher than that in 2024; Regarding thermal coal, the overall supply of domestic thermal coal in 2025 was relatively sufficient, and the positive support from the supply side was limited. However, the purchasing mood of the downstream was not good, and it was mainly based on small-scale urgent purchases. The transportation situation of coal mines was average, and the market presented a situation of supply exceeding demand, with coal prices lacking positive support and showing an overall downward trend. In 2025, there was a significant oversupply of alumina, and the market competition was intense. As the prices continued to decline, most enterprises were in a loss-making state by the end of 2025. The profit of the Chinese alumina industry in 2025 was approximately 20.192 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 79.98% compared to the industry profit of 100.882 billion yuan in 2024.
