The gap in bauxite supply in India may reach 145 million tons by 2036.
October 13, 2026
In the first half of 2026, India's bauxite imports reached 3.7 million tons, an increase of 129.5% compared to 161.2 million tons in the first half of 2025, amounting to an increase of 208.8 million tons. Currently, India produces approximately 25 million tons of bauxite annually, with a bauxite resource volume of 4.958 billion tons. It also produces about 9.5 million tons of alumina annually. According to the industry standard that 2.5 tons of bauxite are needed for each ton of alumina, the current alumina production corresponds to a demand of approximately 24 million tons of bauxite. In 2025, the domestic production was about 25 million tons, which could theoretically meet the current alumina production and leave nearly 10 million tons in surplus. However, imports continue to increase. According to research, India's bauxite production in the first quarter of 2026 is estimated to be 73.98 million tons, and imports in the first half reached 3.7 million tons. The upward trend of imports has persisted for many years: approximately 31 million tons in 2021, 38 million tons in 2022, 37 million tons in 2023, 41 million tons in 2024, and nearly 49 million tons in 2025. In the first half of 2025, imports were 33 million tons, and in the first half of 2026, they increased by 4 million tons, representing a 12.1% increase on a quarter-on-quarter basis, indicating a significant increase in imports that is not a one-off change.
India is promoting several domestic bauxite projects to enhance supply. Odisha Mining Corporation (OMC) is preparing to increase the output of its Kodingamali bauxite mine from 3.6 million tons per year to 6 million tons per year. National Aluminium Company is developing the Pottangi bauxite mine, which has an estimated reserve of 111 million tons and an annual production capacity of 3.5 million tons. This mine will support the expansion of NALCO's additional 1 million tons per year of alumina refinery, bringing its total alumina production capacity to 31 million tons by the first half of 2027. Hindalco Industries has signed a memorandum of understanding with OMC to secure long-term bauxite supply for its planned Aditya refinery expansion. This expansion has a capacity of 8.5 million tons per year and is expected to come on stream in the fiscal year 2027-28. Pioneer Aluminium Industries maintains a 1.5 million tons per year refinery capacity, while United Company RUSAL is acquiring up to 50% of the company's shares to strengthen its alumina and raw material supply chain. The three major projects of Sijimali, Kodingamali, and Pottangi will add a total bauxite mining capacity of 21.5 million tons per year based on the announced production capacity.
If the Sijimali, Kodingamali, and Pottangi projects proceed as planned, India's domestic bauxite production may rise to 45 to 50 million tons per year. However, the alumina production is also expected to increase significantly. With the expansion of refinery capacity, India's metallurgical-grade alumina production is expected to reach approximately 21.8 to 23.8 million tons by 2036. According to the conversion rate of 2.5 tons of bauxite to 1 ton of alumina, this will require approximately 54.5 to 59.5 million tons of bauxite per year. Even if domestic bauxite production reaches 45 to 50 million tons, India may still need to import ore. Based on the above range, the potential gap may be approximately 4.5 to 14.5 million tons per year. At the same time, if the planned capacity increases and operational improvements proceed as expected, India may record at least 5 to 30 million tons of alumina surplus in the high scenario by 2036. The future of India's bauxite market will ultimately depend on the speed at which new mines, refinery capacity, and appropriate bauxite supply can be aligned.
