Citigroup: Shipping risks may drive up regional aluminum premiums
March 3, 2026
On Monday, March 2nd, Citigroup analysts stated in a report that even if aluminum production in the Middle East does not immediately suffer a blow, the disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz could still drive up regional aluminum premiums and reshape the regional trade flows.
The analyst stated that a significant portion of the global primary aluminum trade passes through the Gulf region. According to their estimation, the region's primary aluminum production accounts for approximately 9% of the global total, and it is the main supplier of P1020 aluminum and unaltered alloys to Europe. The producing countries include the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Iran and Oman.
Citigroup maintains an optimistic short-term outlook for aluminum prices and reaffirms its target price of $3,400 per ton for the next 0 to 3 months. The LME three-month aluminum futures price has recently risen by 2.75% to $3,226.50 per ton.
