Inicio - Noticias - If the supply of bauxite or alumina needed in the Middle East were to be interrupted, the price of aluminum is likely to continue to rise.
If the supply of bauxite or alumina needed in the Middle East were to be interrupted, the price of aluminum is likely to continue to rise.
March 3, 2026
Should there be a potential disruption in the supply of bauxite or alumina required by the aluminum smelting plants in the Middle East, it would constitute a "very significant risk". The price of aluminum is likely to continue to rise.
On Monday morning, the LME's three-month aluminum futures price rose by 1.8% to $3,196.5 per ton. It had risen by 2.8% at the opening to $3,228. Shanghai aluminum futures increased by 1.14% to $23,975 per ton (equivalent to $3,490.57). The London copper price fell by 0.7% after earlier gains, while the zinc price remained unchanged. Iran has become an important zinc supplier to China, which helped keep zinc prices in the domestic Chinese market at a lower level compared to other regions around the world last year.
The reaction of the basic metal market was varied, and the increase in aluminum prices was relatively moderate. This might reflect investors' broader concerns about the impact of the escalation of the war in Iran on energy prices and the global economy. The strengthening of the US dollar has limited the further rise in aluminum prices. The strengthening of the US dollar causes the prices of commodities priced in US dollars to fall, as the cost for investors using other currencies to purchase these goods becomes higher.
US President Trump stated that the US military would continue to bomb Iran until its goal was achieved, and called on the Iranian army and police to surrender; otherwise, they would "face a certain and inevitable death". In response to the US-Israeli attack, Iran launched multiple rounds of missiles at neighboring countries including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, all of which are key global producers of aluminum.
Citigroup analysts Wenyu Yao and others stated in their report that the aluminum market is currently experiencing a "macroscopic back-and-forth tug-of-war": on one hand, the situation in the Gulf region threatens to push up regional premiums in Europe and the United States; on the other hand, the hedging positions and the strengthening of the US dollar have "produced a counterbalancing drag".
Citigroup pointed out that aluminum smelters typically maintain an inventory of about one to two weeks of alumina, limiting the immediate production risks. The bank stated that higher premiums, soaring freight costs, and the intensification of cargo delays in the Gulf region are the most likely impacts in the short term.
