Commerzbank has revised its base metal price forecasts upward, citing favorable recent momentum amid rising prices.
Thu Lan Nguyen, Head of FX and Commodities Research at the bank, stated in a report: “We have adjusted our base metal price forecasts, with most metals now expected to trade above our previous estimates.”
The bank now expects copper to average $10,500 per tonne by year-end, up from its prior forecast of $9,600.
The aluminum price forecast has been raised from $2,600 to $2,900 per tonne, while the zinc price outlook was increased from $2,800 to $3,000 per tonne.
Nguyen added that, given the current supply backdrop, copper’s recent strength may be premature, leaving room for a short-term pullback.
The nickel price forecast was lowered from $16,000 to $15,000 per tonne. Although production growth has slowed, sustained ample supply continues to exert downward pressure on nickel prices.
Following a brief dip earlier this month, the U.S. import aluminum premium has surged to a record high, driven by domestic shortages, a 50% tariff, and tight global supply.
LME inventories have declined since mid-October, suggesting that the tariff-driven supply impact may be waning. The sharp inventory build-up at the end of October was likely linked to a trader restocking for financial transactions.
